The tectonic plates have moved, the earth has trembled, and the inevitable is underway...and soon the markets will open!
Denner has publicly declared war on Harvey. On CNBC, no less. If he doesn't move Harv out through "an agreement with the company,” he’s waging a proxy war. Which he will win.
Harvey is shaken. Visibly
so. During his last interview, he forgot
the name of 113 (the journalist reminded him it was Brigatinib), and he became
incoherent when queried about his relationship with Denner. END GAME.
So what now?
Sale. Possibly a fire
sale. Denner has 27% of Sarissa’s holdings in Ariad, nothing to show, and its
been over a year. $100m plus on the
line. Bad. Bad. And Bad again. After investing so big, tying up so much
capital – dead money – for so long, it’s time to move on. And that means selling Ariad to the highest bidder. Pronto!
Low end, $15pps.
Disgraceful, below the pre-flash crash price,
and the old school Ariad crew will be outraged (and out of pocket). Denner, however, can declare a 100% plus
profit, move on to the next battle, and be done with all this yucky drama with
Berger and his aspirations to be President For Life. That’s the worst case, and it
happens in 60 days.
High end, $35 pps.
This happens if the God Molecule woos big
pharma, Brigatinib is on the verge of FDA approval, and there’s
good news on Pona dosing trials on the way. 60 days, 90
max, and it's over. OVER!
Either way, shorts are toast and the (new) longs’ patience
will soon be rewarded.
Good luck to all.
TC
The sad part is that Berger is the soul of the company. In the fervor of making money in the stock market it is easy to forget that Ariad is about curing cancer first, making stockholders rich second, as it should be.
ReplyDeleteI like your thinking though.
There is nothing to be sad about Berger. You know how much he contributed, and how much he gained through this publicly owned company which he treated as his own property. $5million per year compensation in 2014 at the loss of the shareholder, no wonder Denner and other directors have to say, it is enough! Change is eminent, necessary and now. Otherwise, shareholders will bleed to death, and there will be only one rich and fatty Berger and his friends(more than 20 plus VPs of a company of this size?). We embrace the change as the long. Berger might have done something meaningful, yet, he is now destroying shareholder value. Every time he announced something, the market would respond in a negative way to show his value is negative. He gradually lost his respects he earned because he wanted too much at the expense of the shareholders, that is the sad part of it. Nobody can wait for this to be continuing in the real world. Let's see ......
ReplyDeleteAriad is not a non profit, 501c3. If objective no. 1 were something other than profit, he should have joint a university, founded a charity, pioneered a non profit research institute. But Harv did not do any of those things. He formed a FOR PROFIT company that has made no money, for a quarter century, made him self fantastically rich, and to date has only one product on market that reached a very limited patient population. Time to move on. Pronto.
ReplyDeleteMultiple typos. ..he should have joined a university. Anyway, you get the point.
ReplyDeleteI get the he point all right. I have ben long for many years now. Mabe my perspective is somewhat different than yours, because I have cancer. Anyway, what could possibly be better than dying rich?
ReplyDeleteI hope you will stay strong for many, many years and that one of the new drugs or therapies on the horizon will send your cancer into remission.
ReplyDeleteHere's the way I see it.I will be disappointed with 16 bucks unless it comes very quickly.A 35 dollar price target in 90 days is very ambitious(500%),but would make me delirious if it happened in 3 months.I think we need a year to 18 months to get to that target and for that reason we need Berger.He is the only person in Denners' way and we need a "buffer" for a while.I care nothing about Burger and could care less whatever happens to him in the end,he is a crooked s.o.b. My prediction of what happens is ... no one likes a proxy fight and I think Berger sees the writing on the wall.He will not want to give up his company so he will agree to giving Denner the board seats that he wants. It's a win/win/win situation.Berger gets to keep his big salary and continue accumulating shares.Denner will have the control he wants through the board.And last but not least we gain a little time to get to a much higher number.
ReplyDeleteThe day this company went public it was no longer Berger's company.This horse needs another Jockey,bye bye Berger and your greed.I agree the number one thing is saving lives,but it is also a publicly traded company.So tell Berger to work for free and retire his shares for the good of all and then i will believe it is not about the money!
DeleteYour low end is not the low end as it turns out. I expect $12 to $14 as Berger has divided this company up into so many pieces in the name of partnerships to hold his position as CEO that no one would be interested in purchasing Ariad. I think the announcement of partnering '113 was the last straw for Dr. Denner (and, he is correct!) , so it is time for Denner to collect. Harvey is an old buffoon, and he acts like one. When he stated that , "2014 is all about shareholder value", what a frickin joke.
ReplyDelete