Waiting is boring, and gambling is fun.

 

Seriously, why on earth would you not hold ARIA securely and wait for movement north? We’re way better off than we were back in October when we were at 23 because…. let me get this over with in a quick run on sentence in a tiny font, and then  get to the point. 

We understanding the Iclusig dosing protocol better, and can mitigate AEs, the the powerful/positive effect of Iclusg is now better understood – and have been validated; the Lords at the FDA have twice blessed the pearl; patient/doc community has demonstrated that they will march on Washington if need be to keep Iclusig (because it saves lives); and then there's the impressive new data Iclusig’s impact Iclusig's impact on GIST; Major league investors are stepping up to the plate and getting behind Ariad (hint hint…), and then there's 113 and the soon to be unveiled SUPER MOLECULE! (red cape and all).

So there's that.

Now, really, what’s the downside of hanging on?   There are several.

1. You’re a short, and your life is flashing before your eyes (ok, but shorts aren't hanging on, they are just making noise).
2. Waiting is a drag. You’re impatient, and you want your money, MO MONEY, now now now! Waiting two months or six months or (God help us) A YEAR is just, well, BORING!!!
3. You have a better idea, a better stock to hang on to.  But please tell us what it is!
   
            ...and best of all!!!
4. Gambling, perversely, is fun.  (But you should get help for that.)
    

If there's a better excuse, let me know?

TC

What Happens Post ASCO?

2daMoon, or just Kinda-Flat?

Given the news and the drama and the hundreds of posts, a sensible long, or short (if there is such a thing) might well ask - what now?   Having read many/most of the feedback, the original abstracts published two weeks ago as well as the recent "press releases," I'd wager there are two competing camps. 

Camp 1: 2daMoon

Given the sheer awesomeness of the results and the good data, the positive vibe and the Longs' hug fest around the campfire...it simply MUST be that we're about to launch this rocket 2daMoon - either on our own power, or with an impending buy out.  Events foreshadowing the buyout include, but ain't limited to...The Activist Investor signing up; FDA turn around; encouraging early results from AP26113; GIST data; an imminent "reveal" of the new SUPER MOLECULE! (it will have a red cape), BlackRock bypassing the poison pill...and so on.  So, how up? Double? Triple? In a day a month or a year? Or faster and more and... OMG  you're a millionaire TOMORROW up?  I would love me some of that, absolutely.

or...

Camp 2: Just Kinda-Flat

This is the sour-puss, sky will always fall, "Ariad-is-boring-I-want-my-MONEY-NOW, AF, Cramer....I'm so over this and have far better ideas" school of thought.  As a rah-rah long, I don't like these guys, this camp.  At all. But here's the thing....it's hard to blame them. First, FDA gives the 2nd thumbs up, and no gap filled.  Last month or so, we're down 30% on mostly good or non-news (might be more or less, I try not to think about what this has done to my portfolio).  But, and here's the worst part, all the GRRRRRREAT, Tony-the-Tiger-esque news from this weekend's press releases is.....old. OLD OLD OLD OLD.  

Quibble if you want, but the "new" results were darn near identical to the abstracts that came out mid month... which I posted 12,000 times on this very blog.  To no avail. The stock didn't budge on the good news, and it rarely does.  Finally, the real hard-core short/pessimist/sour-puss gang would tell you that the only thing that drives a spike is a good, juicy British BO rumor. (And God could we use one of THOSE now).    Like I said, I don't like this crowd...mostly because they're a threat and I don't want to be working at The Golden Arches in my retirement.  

So, what the hell?

Sadly, I think my foes, my  nemeses, are more right than wrong.  Mostly for the wrong reasons.  Sure, we might get a bump, and maybe there's a buy out lurking there someplace (only Alex knows for sure), but the punch line is that while speculation is good fun, ultimately it's the monetization of this science that will give us a solid and irreversible push up...maybe even to 50 in a few years.   But that, Dear Ariad Investor, will not be happening tomorrow morning before the market opens. 

Good Luck to All. 

TC