Forget about it.
Forget about the question. It's a red herring. Harvey stays until he goes, and there ain't nonthin' you, little retail investor (just like me) can do about it.
And then, who cares. The science, being what it is, will outlast/overpower HB. It's that good.
And then....seriously. Harvey built the company from scratch, it's his life opus, our little retail rants, our frustration don't mean a thing to this man. He's rich, fantastically rich. He's successful - wince if you must, but think about the life saving products he has produced with Ariad. That doesn't change b/c YOU lost money and are pissed off. 113 works, pona works, rida back from the dead in a combo/tag team version, and the God Molecule (nM), or so we hope, is on the way. And I didn't even say GIST (GIST!) or lung cancer. Deal with it.
And, then...most of the board is in his pocket.
A Denner led Coup? Maybe, but to what end? Let's say there's a coup and that Ariad is ripped from Harvey's control...he's pushed out of the car moving at high speed, rolls down the street, and 2da and BR and the rest of the Harvey Hater's have a good laugh...and feel, well, vindicated. So what?
Maybe you get a buy out. Ok, I'll give you that. We get 12 or 15 or 18 if we're super lucky. Great. I'm up in multiples, and have no complaints. Then again, what if the buy out is at half or a third of a long term value. Seriously. We hit 24 previously with only one partially exploited drug in the system. Now we have two, with multiple kick-ass indications, and a third BIC mystery molecule (we think) to be delivered in the next 75 days.
What's all that worth in, say, two or three years? 40? 50? 60? Pick a number, but it will be multiples of whatever we get if Harv is thrown out of the car and we sell out cheap. In a panic.
I've got time. I'm working, paying the bills, and am happy to sit tight and see how all this plays out. And, ultimately, as far as Harvey goes, neither he nor the board members nor the tutes give a rat's ass what you and me think. However frequently and angrily we post - we just don't mater.
So just enjoy the ride. Or get out of the car. And in the meantime, forget about Harvey. He's driving.
TC
Yeah...True dat!!!
ReplyDeleteFrom Amplekind on iHub:
ReplyDeleteAmpleKind Monday, 10/13/14 12:22:38 PM
Re: rumrunner528 post# 55001
Post # of 55034
Quote:
the level of mistrust exhibited toward HB leads me to guess that even if the new compound targets pancreatic cancer, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's all at the same time, it won't move the needle.
rum, I consider you one of the more level-headed old timers on
this board, so I'd like to take issue with you on the assumption,
one that seems to have acquired almost scriptural certainty, which
is that "X" does not trust HB, where X is "the street", "investors",
"the big boys", etc..
I consider this bit of "wisdom" to be highly dubious for the following reasons:
1. There's absolutely no evidence (that would pass the sniff test) that
has ever been adduced. It's all anecdotal, avidly pushed by bashers
but there's no way to measure, or determine if there's any validity
2. It's totally counter-intuitive! Much of the value of Ariad (esp. the future
value) is based on its science, and the efficacy of its drugs. This is measured
by peer reviewed papers, clinical studies, experience with the drug as
the best practitioners use it in the clinic. Dr.Berger's likability has no
impact on any of these variables. Efficacy does not depend on the CEO's
"trustworthiness". It's demonstrated in the lab and the clinic!
3. Dr.Berger's clever trick, fooling Merck into buying something useless.
This is really silly, after all, Merck scientists had full access to all info on
Rida, and they made a decision based on that. A good time to remember
nolo's reiterating, that what Ariad (and Merck) is doing is scientific/medical
research. The outcome is not guaranteed (if it was you wouldn't need
clinical trials). Merck saw the potential for value, and as often the case,
it didn't work out.
4. Wall street, investment firms, hedge funds are run by amoral sharks
(or sharks with proper shark morality). These are not people who will
recoil in horror at the notion that Dr.Berger went to the edge in
putting the best face on any particular corporate event. That's his
job! These predators will invest if they can profit, damn the moral
status of Dr.Berger (which BTW is no worse than any tough, ambitious
entrepreneurial executive). The notion that these money bags
will ignore clinical data, cause they don't trust HB is not credible. If
the data is good, they will come.
5. Academic collaborators continue to "trust" Dr.Berger/Ariad, as evidenced
by continuing to use Ariad's compounds in their research and clinical work.
I don't think they would risk their patients, and their own professional
standing otherwise.
I also question the notion that Drs.Berger and Denner are antagonists.
For many posters here, Dr.Denner stands for a quick turnaround, and
a chance to get out quickly. I see no reason to assume that he is
unwilling to stick around for a while, if things (not available to us)
are such that there's real potential for the "long" term (let's say
two years). Maybe he'd rather walk away with 500 percent later than
100 percent today. I don't think anybody can say with any certainty.
Regards,
A.