Harvey Forever?

Forget about it.

Forget about the question. It's a red herring.  Harvey stays until he goes, and there ain't nonthin' you, little retail investor (just like me) can do about it. 

And then, who cares. The science, being what it is, will outlast/overpower HB. It's that good.

And then....seriously.   Harvey built the company from scratch, it's his life opus, our little retail rants, our frustration don't mean a thing to this man. He's rich, fantastically rich.  He's successful - wince if you must, but think about the life saving products he has produced with Ariad. That doesn't change b/c YOU lost money and are pissed off. 113 works, pona works, rida back from the dead in a combo/tag team version, and the God Molecule (nM), or so we hope, is on the way.  And I didn't even say GIST (GIST!) or lung cancer.  Deal with it.

And, then...most of the board is in his pocket. 

A Denner led Coup?  Maybe, but to what end?   Let's say there's a coup and that Ariad is ripped from Harvey's control...he's pushed out of the car moving at high speed, rolls down the street, and 2da and BR and the rest of the Harvey Hater's have a good laugh...and feel, well, vindicated.  So what?

Maybe you get a buy out. Ok, I'll give you that. We get 12 or 15 or 18 if we're super lucky. Great. I'm up in multiples, and have no complaints.  Then again, what if the buy out is at half or a third of a long term value.  Seriously.   We hit 24 previously with only one partially exploited drug in the system.  Now we have two, with multiple kick-ass indications, and a third BIC mystery molecule (we think) to be delivered in the next 75 days.

What's all that worth in, say, two or three years?  40? 50? 60?   Pick a number, but it will be multiples of whatever we get if Harv is thrown out of the car and we sell out cheap. In a panic.

I've got time. I'm working, paying the bills, and am happy to sit tight and see how all this plays out. And, ultimately, as far as Harvey goes, neither he nor the board members nor the tutes give a rat's ass what you and me think.  However frequently and angrily we post - we just don't mater.

So just enjoy the ride. Or get out of the car.  And in the meantime, forget about Harvey. He's driving.

TC

NONSENSE

Down is up. Up is down.
Black is white. White is black

I had a colleague a few years back who was ex Navy. She served on the flight deck of an aircraft carrier.  Her job was to talk pilots down for landings, making sure they landed right side up.  Because they often became disoriented on the sorties, sometimes they didn't know which way was up. And which way was down. So she had to tell them, she was their voice of reason, to tell them which way was up. And which way was down.

One pilot, the one she thought about all these years, didn't listen.  He trusted his feelings, his emotions, which after a high velocity combat mission had disoriented him.  He was flying upside down. She told him to flip over, and pull up. He didn't, thinking up was down. And down was up.  He was the only one she lost.

So, here we are. Down is up. Up is down.
Great news, we fall by 8%.   Market tanks, we're up.

Nonsense.

Sense?

• AP26113, Breakthrough therapy status (one of only eight such cases in 2014). 
• Pona gets thumbs up from PRAC, kills damn near every mutant, has 5 plus untapped indications - including GIST. 
• Expansion in Europe is in the works, partnership in Japan is a matter of time. 
• And there's Denner.
• And Blackrock
• And Fidelity.
• And, best of all, good science. That most of all. 

Nonsense. Sense. Up. Down.

You decide, but trust facts.  And be careful. There are dangerous people out there and they are disorienting, always confident, and occasionally eloquent .  They'll have you  believing that white is black. That down is up. They will convince you that sense, that facts and science and logical conclusions, are nonsense. And ultimately,  if you listen long enough, they will fool you into believing that precious things, those you hold dear, are worthless.

TC

Impact of 2014 FDA "Breakthrough Status" on Market Capitalization, 30 and 60 days out

 FDA "Breakthrough Status" appears to have no consistent impact on market cap in the short term (30-60 days). 

Yah, and where did you come up with that?  

FDA web site lists drugs receiving breakthrough status, so check the list yourself, wise guy. FDA Breakthrough Status Approvals in 2014.  Now, if you have the time and energy, look at each of the firms, and track the share price/market cap the day before the status was granted, and then at 30 and 60 days out.  (And, for heaven's sake, yes, I get that it has not been  60 days yet for Glaxo and Merck, and the graph below should be interpreted accordingly).  Anyway, do the math yourself, but what I get (below) does not indicate any clear trend/pattern.  Yes, one little bio (Pharmacycics) and one BP (Gilead) got a near 20% bump, but the other five...not so much. So no consistent pattern. 

So What?

1. 30/60 days is  too early to see any change.  The real impact of "Breakthrough Status" is in the long run, and this because: a) you're likely to go to market earlier, and therefore generate revenues earlier and for a longer period (more years on patent); and b) you might skip a trial or two (which could save you $100-250m, depending on the indication and a thousand other things).

2. Stop your damn whining. The people complaining that Ariad "only" got an 11% bump after the FDA breakthrough blessing are a bunch of damn whiners that haven't done their homework.  There's no reason to think that this FDA designation should be a game changer in the short run. 

coming VERY soon: So What is Breakthrough Status Worth for a Pharma?

Evidence from 2014: How does getting an FDA "Breakthrough Therapy" impact market capitalization 30 and 60 days out?

Stay tuned for a summary of what this has meant for other pharmas in 2014.

To be continued.

TC